BoM photo.
BoM photo. Bureau of Meteorology

CLIMATE OUTLOOK: What Gladstone will see over next 3 months

THE remarkable drop in temperature and humidity between now and last week has raised questions as to what kind of summer Gladstone can expect for the rest of this year.

But questions regarding long-term weather outlooks are seldom clear; the broad answers often raising more questions than they resolve.

Bureau of Meteorology's Adam Blaz told The Observer this uncertainty was due to the limitations of technology, pointing out that weather model computers could only go so far.

Bureau of Meteorology: Climate outlook.
Bureau of Meteorology: Climate outlook.

"Climate models are usually very 'broadbrush' because they talk about a whole area," he said.

"The climate model has no ability to see a one-off heavy rainfall event, which can often skew predictions."

Over the next three months, Gladstone is expected to receive close to the average amount of rainfall, except in February.

BoM said there is a 63 per cent chance of above the median average amount of rainfall next month, the average being 137mm.

"Beyond that, our climate models are suggesting it's going to dry out a bit," Mr Blaz said.

However, nothing is ever set in stone when it comes to the weather.

One of the factors that could increase monsoonal activity and bring heavy rainfall to Far North and Central Queensland at the start of next month is the formation of a tropical wave in the Coral Sea.

"There is a chance it may become more active and could fire up a bit but only once that happens will we know how strong or even noticeable it could be," Mr Blaz said.

"We put a cyclone outlook out at the start of last November and this year we are expecting to see the average number of cyclones in the eastern states, with the average number of one crossing the coastline.

"Lately, we have been getting a lot of calls from nervous people who have seen cyclones sitting off the coast."

But Mr Blaz said the sightings were not unusual for this time of year and that the bureau only forecasted cyclones three days ahead.

"The computer models need all the factors of a cyclone to line up. They struggle with where and when a cyclone will develop so we add a human element to the predictions as well," he said.

There is a five per cent chance of a cyclone hitting in the next three days.


  • Today - max 31, min 22
  • Fri - max 31, min 21
  • Sat - max 32, min 21
  • Sun - max 31, min 22
  • Mon - max 31, min 23
  • Tues - max 32, min 23
  • Wed - max 32, min 24