ANALYSIS: LNP faces a poll shocker in Coast seats
THE LNP is in big trouble with two weeks to run in the Queensland election campaign with its only chance of government a coalition or deal of some sort with One Nation, internal polling from both sides of politics suggests.
That would happen if the Labor vote dropped to 44 seats, but the Palaszczuk Government safe with any number at 45 or above, relying on the support of Katter Australian Party and independents according to sources with access to internal party polling.
At a stretch One Nation could win 14 seats but that assumes stronger preference flows than may occur with it more likely to secure between six and 10 seats.
On the Sunshine Coast One Nation has a chance in Caloundra, Glass House and in Ninderry, where the vote stands at around 30% for it, Labor and the LNP.
One Nation's Queensland leader Steve Dickson can't win Buderim according to recent polling by both major parties with voters in the conservative seat sticking with the LNP and its candidate, political novice Brent Mickelberg.
With the election in mid stream voters appeared settled on their choices with polling showing little movement in the past week.
But all the news is bad for the LNP with its leader Tim Nicholls struggling to cut through.
Former Newman Government ministers and current shadow ministers Tim Mander, Scott Emerson and Ian Walker would all lose their seats if current polling trends hold true on election day.
Total LNP losses could come to 12 seats.
Labor's ground campaign kicks into gear this weekend across the state in a bid to come home strongly with its target the 47 seats it needs to govern in its own right.
Polling is showing that despite the Premier focusing her efforts of the past two weeks in the north, all the voter volatility is in the state's southern half.
The seats One Nation could consider itself a chance were Maryborough, Gympie, Callide, Glass House, Caloundra, Nanango, Lockyer, Ipswich, Scenic Rim, Southern Downs, Gregory, Warrego, Burdekin and Mackay.
Of those Glass House was doubtful with Labor confident in the chances of its 2015 candidate Brent Hampstead in a seat with a 0.9% margin.
So too were Southern Downs where the Labor vote did not appear high enough to get One Nation over the line against the LNP and Mackay where Labor was on tract for victory.
Balanced against that are One Nation's slight chance of wins in Condamine and Toowoomba North where its vote sits around 24%.
One source said the Pauline Hanson party's best strategy for the next two weeks would be a more subdued steady-as-she-goes approach.
Another put preference flows from One Nation to the LNP at 55%.
Both major political parties were running on limited budgets with a focus on social media which to a large degree is where this campaign is being largely fought.
The unions, active participants for Labor in 2015, were largely out of the picture this time thanks in part to an effective demonisation strategy by the LNP.
One source said the problem for the LNP remained that voters don't like Tim Nicholls with the Campbell Newman connection still fresh to mind and re-enforced daily by Labor.