PREMIER Annastacia Palaszczuk has been clunky on the campaign trail but is the only chance of leading a majority government after November 25.
PREMIER Annastacia Palaszczuk has been clunky on the campaign trail but is the only chance of leading a majority government after November 25. DARREN ENGLAND

Labor the sole chance to win election outright

WITH less than one week to go in the 2017 Queensland election one thing remains apparent that has appeared constant from the start.

The only party capable of winning outright is Labor. Whether or not it can, comes down to the last week of campaigning.

The Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has been clunky and LNP leader Tim Nicholls has looked the smoother but only three outcomes remain and none of them is an outright win for the Blue team.

At this point the fine grain of polling on the Sunshine Coast remains elusive but I'll have a stab at it and suggest Noosa's a dart board, Andrew Powell in Glass House will struggle to hold on with Labor's Brent Hampstead more likely and One Nation's Tracey Bell-Henselin a real dark horse in what is certainly no two-horse race.

She's a chance because of a strong ground game that has as much to do with her longer-term community involvement than the current campaign.

One Nation is doing weird things in Caloundra with multiple How To Vote cards but there it's most likely Mark McArdle would hang on though with Labor's Jason Hunt a strong chance. Preference flows will be critical.

Jarrod Bleijie remains safe in Kawana, the LNP would be able to hold meetings in a phone booth if it loses Buderim and Fiona Simpson's rusted on support should give her another and probably final term in Maroochydore.

The former Newman Government Speaker has been clear on her opposition to Sekisui's plans at Yaroomba as have all candidates in that electorate based on voter feedback.

But reaction to this week's revelation more than 500 submissions would need to be remade because of an application 'error' by the developer understandably has residents skittish. How they react at the polling booth is anyone's guess.

The new seat of Ninderry is there to be won with any suggestion it's a clear LNP win, optimistic at best.

Again, don't be surprised if Yaroomba proves to be a factor.

If anyone benefits from voter angst it would be Labor's Bill Gissane but he would inherit a poisoned chalice if he failed to convince a new Palaszczuk government to get to the bottom of what appears at best to be messy development application process.

Nicklin appears headed the LNP's way after many failed attempts to unseat Peter Wellington and it's a win it will desperately need.

Why? The above as I wrote earlier is a stab.

The polling story of which I'm more certain is the numbers as they stand have Labor within a sniff of victory on 46 seats with a best-case scenario of 49 and at worst 44. More on that later.

The LNP may be as low as 32 and at best 36, One Nation looks at most to have 12 but again could be as few as eight or even six, Katter Australia will definitely win two, and possibly three, and the Greens are a maybe one, but not in Jackie Trad's seat of South Brisbane where she is safe. Direct preference flows between the Greens and Labor instead would determine who replaces the LNP's Scott Emerson in Maiwar.

Preference flows would be crucial to the outcome statewide. One Nation's primary vote was hitting 30% in the seats around Brisbane this week where there are more sitting LNP members than Labor. One Nation has placed all sitting MPs next to last ahead of only the Greens on its How to Vote cards.

Labor only needs to reach 45 seats to secure minority government with Katter Australia Party support. As said earlier best case is 49 but that is more hopeful than realistic with the magic majority of 47 still there to be won in the last week of the campaign.

One Nation preference flows based on existing How to Vote cards are at 60-40 to the LNP. They need to be 70-30 to drive Labor down to 44 seats and ensure an LNP-One Nation Coalition.

The campaign highlight on the Sunshine Coast has been Mayor Mark Jamieson's Trumpesque night time '#wonder boy' twitter sniping, the purpose of which remains as elusive as his attack on Peter Wellington.

The mayor, I would humbly suggest, may better serve his constituents by explaining by Twitter or whatever means he chooses just what a delegation from Malaysian casino company NagaCorp was doing in town this week along with representatives of the China Railway Engineering Corporation.

His 2016 election result was decisive, but did not confer absolute power. Councillors have a role to play in that regard